By Khaleeq Ahmed and Farhan Sharif
Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The parties of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif contesting Pakistan's parliamentary elections in January may make it harder for the group backing President Pervez Musharraf to win a majority if the ballot is fair, analysts said.
``If there is no rigging, the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam has the least chance of winning a majority,'' said Moonis Ahmer, professor of international relations at the University of Karachi. ``In a fair election, it will be a close fight between Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party and Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz.''
Musharraf, who imposed emergency rule last month, has promised to restore the constitution on Dec. 15, meeting a key opposition demand. Sharif and Bhutto, former prime ministers, said their parties will contest the Jan. 8 ballot under protest so that the field is not left open to pro-Musharraf parties.
Musharraf banned public gatherings, detained lawyers and political workers and imposed media curbs on Nov. 3. As many as 6,000 people detained under emergency have been freed while lawyers such as Aitzaz Ahsan, president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, remain under house arrest.
``To be credible, the elections must be held in an environment where the 1973 constitution has been reinstated, politicians are free to campaign, the media is free to report, and all activists, lawyers and party workers are freed from detention,'' the Heritage Foundation in Washington said in a Dec. 10 report.
Lawyers Boycott
Lawyers plan to boycott the election to pressure the government to reinstate deposed judges, Rasheed Razvi, vice chairman of the Pakistan Bar Council said in a phone interview today. As many as 25 lawyers, including Ahsan, have withdrawn their applications to contest the election, he said.
Sharif and Bhutto dropped a threat to boycott the ballot after they failed to agree on a strategy to oppose Musharraf.
``The participation of all major parties will give greater legitimacy to the election,'' said Talat Masood, a retired general in Islamabad ``It also puts greater pressure on the regime to ensure fair elections.''
The Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal, a coalition of six religious parties, was the biggest opposition group in the previous 342- seat Parliament that completed its term on Nov. 15. The alliance collapsed because Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, the biggest party in the alliance, plans to contest January's elections, while Jamaat-e- Islami, the second-largest, decided to boycott the ballot.
Illegal Ballot
Cricket captain turned lawmaker Imran Khan says his Tehrik- e-Insaaf party will boycott the elections because they are illegal under Musharraf. Khan won the sole seat for his party in the 2002 elections.
``Chances are that no party will get a clear majority,'' said Khalid Mahmud, a research analyst at the Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad. ``Since all the major parties are contesting, the likelihood is we will see a hung Parliament.''
Bhutto's PPP had 56 seats in the previous Parliament, after 22 lawmakers defected to other parties following the 2002 election. The MMA was the largest opposition party with 57 seats.
Bhutto, 54, who returned to Pakistan in October, ending eight years in self-imposed exile, has said she has evidence the pro-Musharraf party plans to rig voting. She survived an assassination attempt on her homecoming procession when suicide bombers killed 136 people in Karachi.
Sharif, 57, who was barred by the Election Commission from contesting the ballot on the grounds that he was convicted of hijacking in 2000, returned to Pakistan last month.
`Energized Nation'
The return of Bhutto and Sharif has ``energized the nation,'' said the Heritage report. ``The two leaders have expressed concern about the credibility of the election process. The U.S. should work closely with the Election Commission to ensure the allegations of vote-rigging are dealt with in a transparent fashion.''
The Election Commission is taking ``concrete steps'' to ensure free voting, Secretary Kanwar Dilshad told Dawn News television in an interview yesterday. As many as 500,000 election officers are being trained and transparent ballot boxes have been imported, he said.
The U.S. plans to send as many as 65 observers to monitor voting, the Dawn newspaper also reported yesterday.
Retaliation Tool
``Since the major parties are already saying that elections will be rigged, they will use this as a tool of retaliation if the result is not in accordance to their expectations,'' said Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, assistant professor of international relations at Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad. ``We can expect to see a reaction the day after the election.''
European Union observers ``cast serious doubt'' over the independence of the Election Commission during the 2002 ballot. Musharraf lifted a three-year state of emergency before the vote.
In 2002, tribal leaders instructed followers how to vote and there were instances where women were prevented from voting without any action bring taken by authorities to counter the practice, the Commonwealth Observer Group said in its report.
The EU observers said the accuracy of the voters' register was in doubt before the elections.
To contact the reporters on this story: Khaleeq Ahmed in Islamabad, Pakistan on paknews@bloomberg.net ; Farhan Sharif in Karachi, Pakistan on fsharif2@bloomberg.net
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